DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059473
论文题名: Is the 2004-2012 reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation significant?
作者: Roberts C.D. ; Jackson L. ; McNeall D.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10078
EISSN: 1944-9809
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 9 起始页码: 3204
结束页码: 3210
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AMOC
; detection
; significance
; trend
; variability
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Error detection
; Oceanography
; AMOC
; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations
; Interannual time scale
; Interannual variability
; Model inter comparisons
; significance
; trend
; variability
; Climate change
; annual variation
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; detection method
; meridional circulation
; overturn
; timescale
; trend analysis
; Atlantic Ocean
英文摘要: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26.5°N weakened by -0.53 sverdrup (Sv)/yr between April 2004 and October 2012. To assess whether this trend is consistent with the expected "noise" in the climate system, we compare the observed trend with estimates of internal variability derived from 14 control simulations from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Eight year trends of -0.53 Sv/yr are relatively common in two models but are extremely unusual (or out of range) in the other 12. However, all 14 models underestimate AMOC variability on interannual time scales. To account for this bias, we estimate plausible upper limits of internal AMOC variability by combining the temporal correlation characteristics of the AMOC from CMIP5 models with an observational estimate of interannual variability. We conclude that the observed AMOC trend is not significantly different (p> 0.01) from plausible estimates of internal variability. Detecting the influence of external climate forcings on the AMOC will require more than one decade of continuous observations. Key Points Recent work has shown that the AMOC weakened by 0.5 Sv/yr between 2004 and 2012 The observed trend is not significantly different from internal variability Detecting external forcings in the AMOC needs more than 10 years of observations © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84900373248&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059473&partnerID=40&md5=ae29a8e1c24ca180c0a1a449cc4d3b88
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7342
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Roberts C.D.,Jackson L.,McNeall D.. Is the 2004-2012 reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation significant?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(9).