DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059233
论文题名: On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO
作者: Mann M.E. ; Steinman B.A. ; Miller S.K.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10080
EISSN: 1944-9811
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 9 起始页码: 3211
结束页码: 3219
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AMO
; climate oscillations
; internal/forced variability
; stadium waves
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Computer simulation
; Stadiums
; AMO
; Anthropogenic warming
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; Climate oscillation
; internal/forced variability
; Multidecadal variability
; Synthetic temperature
; Temperature variation
; Recreation centers
; anthropogenic effect
; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; global warming
; Northern Hemisphere
; numerical model
; temperature inversion
英文摘要: We estimate the low-frequency internal variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature using observed temperature variations, which include both forced and internal variability components, and several alternative model simulations of the (natural+anthropogenic) forced component alone. We then generate an ensemble of alternative historical temperature histories based on the statistics of the estimated internal variability. Using this ensemble, we show, first, that recent NH mean temperatures fall within the range of expected multidecadal variability. Using the synthetic temperature histories, we also show that certain procedures used in past studies to estimate internal variability, and in particular, an internal multidecadal oscillation termed the "Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation" or "AMO", fail to isolate the true internal variability when it is a priori known. Such procedures yield an AMO signal with an inflated amplitude and biased phase, attributing some of the recent NH mean temperature rise to the AMO. The true AMO signal, instead, appears likely to have been in a cooling phase in recent decades, offsetting some of the anthropogenic warming. Claims of multidecadal "stadium wave" patterns of variation across multiple climate indices are also shown to likely be an artifact of this flawed procedure for isolating putative climate oscillations. Key Points Certain common procedures fail to isolate internal variability in climate AMO appears to have been in a cool phase in recent decades 'Stadium wave' patterns are likely an artifact of flawed assessment procedures © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84901925988&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059233&partnerID=40&md5=49411103a3915c6e4e00a6fcd7ed90be
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7344
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology and Earth, Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mann M.E.,Steinman B.A.,Miller S.K.. On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(9).