| DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL059574
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| 论文题名: | Increasing storm tides in New York Harbor, 1844-2013 |
| 作者: | Talke S.A.; Orton P.; Jay D.A.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-10099
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| EISSN: | 1944-9830
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 41, 期:9 | | 起始页码: | 3149
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| 结束页码: | 3155
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | coastal flood risk
; Extreme Events
; New York
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; return interval
; storm tide/storm surge
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Floods
; Sea level
; Tides
; Water levels
; Coastal flood risks
; Extreme events
; New York
; North Atlantic oscillations
; return interval
; Storm tide
; Storms
; air-sea interaction
; annual variation
; data set
; decadal variation
; extreme event
; flood
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; sea level
; tide
; New York Harbor
; United States
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| 英文摘要: | Three of the nine highest recorded water levels in the New York Harbor region have occurred since 2010 (March 2010, August 2011, and October 2012), and eight of the largest twenty have occurred since 1990. To investigate whether this cluster of high waters is a random occurrence or indicative of intensified storm tides, we recover archival tide gauge data back to 1844 and evaluate the trajectory of the annual maximum storm tide. Approximately half of long-term variance is anticorrelated with decadal-scale variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation, while long-term trends explain the remainder. The 10 year storm tide has increased by 0.28 m. Combined with a 0.44 m increase in local sea level since 1856, the 10 year flood level has increased by approximately 0.72±0.25 m, and magnified the annual probability of overtopping the typical Manhattan seawall from less than 1% to about 20-25%. Key Points Significant change in storm tide magnitudes have occurred in NY since 1840s Interannual variability in storm tides is anticorrelated with NAO index Including MSL rise, a 0.72 ± 0.2 m increase in 10 year flood level is estimated © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84901953463&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059574&partnerID=40&md5=8394c08dbbbc783e01c3377eb6dc70ae
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7363
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Talke S.A.,Orton P.,Jay D.A.. Increasing storm tides in New York Harbor, 1844-2013[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(9).
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