DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059839
论文题名: Accuracy of early GFS and ECMWF Sandy (2012) track forecasts: Evidence for a dependence on cumulus parameterization
作者: Bassill N.P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10112
EISSN: 1944-9843
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 9 起始页码: 3274
结束页码: 3281
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ensemble
; forecast
; parameterization
; Sandy
; track
; WRF
Scopus关键词: Clouds
; Computer simulation
; Forecasting
; Hurricanes
; Parameterization
; Cumulus parameterization
; ensemble
; Global forecast systems
; Initial conditions
; Sandy
; track
; Weather research and forecasting models
; WRF
; Weather forecasting
; accuracy assessment
; cumulus
; ensemble forecasting
; Hurricane Sandy 2012
; parameterization
; tracking
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (Central)
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: The extremely damaging Hurricane Sandy (2012) is noteworthy for the significant track bifurcation among several forecast models approximately 6-7days before landfall. The operational versions of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models exemplify this difference over their runs early in Sandy's life cycle, as the former routinely forecast a storm which would make a U.S. landfall, while the latter routinely forecast a track toward the central North Atlantic. This was also generally true of their respective ensemble members. This paper demonstrates that these differences were caused not by resolution or initial condition differences but rather due almost exclusively to choice of cumulus parameterization. Simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model using an ECMWF-like cumulus parameterization in conjunction with GFS initial conditions yield forecasts whose accuracy is similar to that of ECMWF forecasts at extended time ranges (up to 1 week before landfall). Key Points Global Sandy forecasts are dependent upon choice of cumulus parameterization Disparate tracks can be reproduced using identical initial conditions © 2014. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84901946659&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059839&partnerID=40&md5=12c7817760a1070cec7fedc57a197b15
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7376
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bassill N.P.. Accuracy of early GFS and ECMWF Sandy (2012) track forecasts: Evidence for a dependence on cumulus parameterization[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(9).