| DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL059282
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| 论文题名: | Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure |
| 作者: | Gray S.L.; Dunning C.M.; Methven J.; Masato G.; Chagnon J.M.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-10135
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| EISSN: | 1944-9866
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 41, 期:8 | | 起始页码: | 2979
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| 结束页码: | 2987
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | diabatic processes
; potential vorticity
; predictability
; TIGGE data
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| Scopus关键词: | Clouds
; Errors
; Mechanical waves
; Troposphere
; Diabatic process
; Humidity gradients
; Initial condition uncertainties
; Potential vorticity
; predictability
; Systematic modeling
; TIGGE data
; Tropopause sharpness
; Forecasting
; atmospheric transport
; diabatic process
; error analysis
; numerical model
; prediction
; Rossby wave
; tropopause
; vorticity
; wave field
; winter
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| 英文摘要: | Diabatic processes can alter Rossby wave structure; consequently, errors arising from model processes propagate downstream. However, the chaotic spread of forecasts from initial condition uncertainty renders it difficult to trace back from root-mean-square forecast errors to model errors. Here diagnostics unaffected by phase errors are used, enabling investigation of systematic errors in Rossby waves in winter season forecasts from three operational centers. Tropopause sharpness adjacent to ridges decreases with forecast lead time. It depends strongly on model resolution, even though models are examined on a common grid. Rossby wave amplitude reduces with lead 5 days, consistent with underrepresentation of diabatic modification and transport of air from the lower troposphere into upper tropospheric ridges, and with too weak humidity gradients across the tropopause. However, amplitude also decreases when resolution is decreased. Further work is necessary to isolate the contribution from errors in the representation of diabatic processes. Key Points Tropopause sharpness adjacent to ridges decreases with forecast lead time Rossby wave amplitude also decreases with forecast lead time Systematic errors are consistent with misrepresentation of diabatic processes ©2014. The Authors. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84899039396&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059282&partnerID=40&md5=98a9fe89d7c8897a3a7409c7b03dce8c
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7399
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Gray S.L.,Dunning C.M.,Methven J.,et al. Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(8).
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