DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059908
论文题名: On the possible interaction between internal climate variability and forced climate change
作者: Lu J. ; Hu A. ; Zeng Z.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10144
EISSN: 1944-9875
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 8 起始页码: 2962
结束页码: 2970
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV)
; climate variability
; forced climate change
; global warming hiatus
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Scopus关键词: Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Climate variability
; Greenhouse-gas forcing
; Internal climate variability
; Internal variability
; Multidecadal variability
; Oceanic circulations
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Surface air temperatures
; Climatology
; air temperature
; air-sea interaction
; anthropogenic effect
; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; atmospheric circulation
; climate forcing
; climate variation
; global perspective
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; hiatus
; oceanic circulation
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
英文摘要: The global warming hiatus does not necessarily mean a hiatus in anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing and forced climate change (FCC). Here we show that both Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) may cause fluctuations of the global mean surface air temperature (SAT) and hence alternately positive and negative trends on (inter)decadal time scales. However, the forced SAT change under a mean state due to greenhouse gas forcing does not depend on different phases of AMV and PDO, implying the effect of the FCC and internally generated climate variability can be linearly added up to the observed transient global mean SAT. On the other hand, the regional patterns of transient FCC do depend on the phases of the internal variability since the atmospheric and oceanic circulations can be affected by the different phases of the internal variability. Our results suggest a two-way interaction between internal variability and spatial patterns of FCC. Key Points Global warming hiatus may be caused by internal variability Interactive regional forced climate change and internal variability On global average, the variability and forced SAT change are independent ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84900823780&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059908&partnerID=40&md5=5d5bce0317ffa6c8346bf8bea293c0e9
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7408
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lu J.,Hu A.,Zeng Z.. On the possible interaction between internal climate variability and forced climate change[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(8).