globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059637
论文题名:
Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters
作者: Scaife A.A.; Arribas A.; Blockley E.; Brookshaw A.; Clark R.T.; Dunstone N.; Eade R.; Fereday D.; Folland C.K.; Gordon M.; Hermanson L.; Knight J.R.; Lea D.J.; MacLachlan C.; Maidens A.; Martin M.; Peterson A.K.; Smith D.; Vellinga M.; Wallace E.; Waters J.; Williams A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10168
EISSN: 1944-9899
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期:7
起始页码: 2514
结束页码: 2519
语种: 英语
英文关键词: prediction ; regional climate ; signal-to-noise ratio
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure ; Atmospheric temperature ; Signal to noise ratio ; Forecast systems ; Long-range forecasts ; Near surface temperature ; North Atlantic ; North Atlantic oscillations ; Regional climate ; Seasonal forecasts ; Winter conditions ; Forecasting ; climate prediction ; extreme event ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; regional climate ; seasonality ; signal-to-noise ratio ; storm ; winter ; Atlantic Ocean ; Atlantic Ocean (North) ; Europe ; North America
英文摘要: Until recently, long-range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic Basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter North Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near-surface temperature, and wind speed, all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability. Key Points The winter NAO can be skilfully predicted months ahead The signal-to-noise ratio of the predictable signal is anomalously low Predictions of the risk of regional winter extremes are possible © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84897954690&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059637&partnerID=40&md5=ce74497d12691bfe91bea34e907b41e5
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7432
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Scaife A.A.,Arribas A.,Blockley E.,et al. Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(7).
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