DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059335
论文题名: Estimated likelihood of observing a large earthquake on a continental low-angle normal fault and implications for low-angle normal fault activity
作者: Styron R.H. ; Hetland E.A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10184
EISSN: 1944-9915
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 7 起始页码: 2342
结束页码: 2350
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayes
; earthquake likelihood
; low-angle normal fault
Scopus关键词: Faulting
; Probability distributions
; Bayes
; Bayes' theorem
; Centroid moment tensors
; Dip angle
; Frequency-magnitude distribution
; Keypoints
; Large earthquakes
; Normal faults
; Earthquakes
; earthquake magnitude
; estimation method
; GIS
; moment tensor
; normal fault
; probability
; seismic survey
; temporal period
英文摘要: The lack of observed continental earthquakes that clearly occurred on low-angle normal faults (LANFs) may indicate that these structures are not seismically active or that these earthquakes are simply rare events. To address this, we compile all potentially active continental LANFs (24 in total) and calculate the likelihood of observing a significant earthquake on them over periods of 1-100 years. This probability depends on several factors including the frequency-magnitude distribution. For either a characteristic or Gutenberg-Richter distribution, we calculate a probability of about 0.5 that an earthquake greater than M6.5 (large enough to avoid ambiguity in dip angle) will be observed on any LANF in a period of 35 years, which is the current length of the global centroid moment tensor catalog. We then use Bayes' Theorem to illustrate how the absence of observed significant LANF seismicity over the catalog period moderately decreases the likelihood that the structures generate large earthquakes. Key Points GIS compilation of potentially active continental low-angle normal faults Fifty percent chance of large earthquake in 35 years if all LANFs are seismically active No observed quakes moderately decreases likelihood that LANFs are seismogenic © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84897955728&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059335&partnerID=40&md5=9ce6a1ff2b8413bbae4cae6a00aadefe
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7448
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Styron R.H.,Hetland E.A.. Estimated likelihood of observing a large earthquake on a continental low-angle normal fault and implications for low-angle normal fault activity[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(7).