globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84919783209
论文题名:
Ice and AIS: Ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea
作者: Löptien U; , Axell L
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2014
卷: 8, 期:6
起始页码: 2409
结束页码: 2418
语种: 英语
英文关键词: automation ; ice cover ; information system ; sea ice ; ship motion ; statistical analysis ; velocity profile ; weather forecasting ; Atlantic Ocean ; Baltic Sea
英文摘要: The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea located in a densely populated area in northern Europe. Severe sea ice conditions have the potential to hinder the intense ship traffic considerably. Thus, sea ice fore- and nowcasts are regularly provided by the national weather services. Typically, the forecast comprises several ice properties that are distributed as prognostic variables, but their actual usefulness is difficult to measure, and the ship captains must determine their relative importance and relevance for optimal ship speed and safety ad hoc.

The present study provides a more objective approach by comparing the ship speeds, obtained by the automatic identification system (AIS), with the respective forecasted ice conditions. We find that, despite an unavoidable random component, this information is useful to constrain and rate fore- and nowcasts. More precisely, 62-67% of ship speed variations can be explained by the forecasted ice properties when fitting a mixed-effect model. This statistical fit is based on a test region in the Bothnian Sea during the severe winter 2011 and employs 15 to 25 min averages of ship speed. © Author(s) 2014.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/74747
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, Germany; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen 17, Norrköping, Sweden

Recommended Citation:
Löptien U,, Axell L. Ice and AIS: Ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea[J]. Cryosphere,2014-01-01,8(6)
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