| DOI: | 10.1002/2014GL059338
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| 论文题名: | Sahel rainfall in multimodel CMIP5 decadal hindcasts |
| 作者: | Martin E.R.; Thorncroft C.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-10224
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| EISSN: | 1944-9955
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 41, 期:6 | | 起始页码: | 2169
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| 结束页码: | 2175
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | CMIP5
; decadal
; hindcast
; rainfall
; Sahel
; SST
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Forecasting
; CMIP5
; decadal
; Hindcasts
; Sahel
; SST
; Rain
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; drought
; hindcasting
; rainfall
; sea surface temperature
; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]
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| 英文摘要: | This study assesses the capability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) decadal hindcasts to represent Sahel rainfall and a relative sea surface temperature (SST) index (RSI). The RSI measures the relative difference between subtropical North Atlantic SST and tropical SST and is highly correlated with Sahel rainfall. Ten year predictions from 15 models initialized every 5 years (six initialized every year) beginning in 1960 are evaluated. The hindcasts show increased decadal variability compared to the uninitialized historical simulations, with a larger magnitude drought and smaller RSI in the 1970s and 1980s. The multimodel ensemble mean shows skillful predictions that are more accurate than persistence and historical simulations. Models that were able to realistically simulate the correlation between the RSI and Sahel rainfall in uninitialized historical simulations produced more skillful decadal hindcasts of Sahel rainfall as these models were able to successfully translate the SST that was improved through initialization to more skillful Sahel rainfall predictions. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84896586290&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059338&partnerID=40&md5=8ceb17bc0295ee5075839cfd60ff823b
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7488
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Martin E.R.,Thorncroft C.. Sahel rainfall in multimodel CMIP5 decadal hindcasts[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(6).
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