DOI: 10.5194/tc-7-1949-2013
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84886831492
论文题名: A glacial systems model configured for large ensemble analysis of Antarctic deglaciation
作者: Briggs R ; , Pollard D ; , Tarasov L
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2013
卷: 7, 期: 6 起始页码: 1949
结束页码: 1970
语种: 英语
英文关键词: deglaciation
; glacial environment
; glacial landform
; ice sheet
; isostasy
; numerical model
; observational method
; parameterization
; uncertainty analysis
; Antarctica
; Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf
; West Antarctica
英文摘要: This article describes the Memorial University of Newfoundland/Penn State University (MUN/PSU) glacial systems model (GSM) that has been developed specifically for large-ensemble data-constrained analysis of past Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Our approach emphasizes the introduction of a large set of model parameters to explicitly account for the uncertainties inherent in the modelling of such a complex system. At the core of the GSM is a 3-D thermo-mechanically coupled ice sheet model that solves both the shallow ice and shallow shelf approximations. This enables the different stress regimes of ice sheet, ice shelves, and ice streams to be represented. The grounding line is modelled through an analytical sub-grid flux parameterization. To this dynamical core the following have been added: a heavily parameterized basal drag component; a visco-elastic isostatic adjustment solver; a diverse set of climate forcings (to remove any reliance on any single method); tidewater and ice shelf calving functionality; and a new physically motivated, empirically-derived sub-ice-shelf melt (SSM) component. To assess the accuracy of the latter, we compare predicted SSM values against a compilation of published observations. Within parametric and observational uncertainties, computed SSM for the present-day ice sheet is in accord with observations for all but the Filchner ice shelf. The GSM has 31 ensemble parameters that are varied to account (in part) for the uncertainty in the ice physics, the climate forcing, and the ice-ocean interaction. We document the parameters and parametric sensitivity of the model to motivate the choice of ensemble parameters in a quest to approximately bound reality (within the limits of 31 parameters). © Author(s) 2013. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/74911
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, A1B 3X7, Canada; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; C-CORE, St. John's, NL, A1B 3X5, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Briggs R,, Pollard D,, Tarasov L. A glacial systems model configured for large ensemble analysis of Antarctic deglaciation[J]. Cryosphere,2013-01-01,7(6)