globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84885098080
论文题名:
Global glacier changes: A revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties
作者: Mernild S; H; , Lipscomb W; H; , Bahr D; B; , Radić V; , Zemp M
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2013
卷: 7, 期:5
起始页码: 1565
结束页码: 1577
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate effect ; glacier dynamics ; glacier mass balance ; global perspective ; ice cap ; sampling ; sea level change ; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global assessments. Here, we further develop an assessment approach based on accumulation-area ratios (AAR) to estimate committed mass losses and analyze the undersampling problem. We compiled all available AAR observations for 144 GIC from 1971 to 2010, and found that most glaciers and ice caps are farther from balance than previously believed. Accounting for regional and global undersampling errors, our model suggests that GIC are committed to additional losses of 32 ± 12% of their area and 38 ± 16% of their volume if the future climate resembles the climate of the past decade. These losses imply global mean sea-level rise of 163 ± 69 mm, assuming total glacier volume of 430 mm sea-level equivalent. To reduce the large uncertainties in these projections, more long-term glacier measurements are needed in poorly sampled regions. © 2013 Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/74940
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Climate Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling Group, Computational Physics and Methods, Los Alamos National Laboratory, United States; Glaciology and Climate Change Laboratory, Center for Scientific Studies/Centro de Estudios Cientificos (CECs), Chile; Climate Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling Group, Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States; Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States; Institut für Geographie, Universität Innsbruck, Innrain 52, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria; Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada; Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Mernild S,H,, Lipscomb W,et al. Global glacier changes: A revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties[J]. Cryosphere,2013-01-01,7(5)
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