DOI: 10.5194/tc-7-321-2013
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874462243
论文题名: Future Arctic marine access: Analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice
作者: Rogers T ; S ; , Walsh J ; E ; , Rupp T ; S ; , Brigham L ; W ; , Sfraga M
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2013
卷: 7, 期: 1 起始页码: 321
结束页码: 332
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate modeling
; cryosphere
; future prospect
; interdisciplinary approach
; model test
; observational method
; prediction
; resource development
; sea ice
; shipping
; stakeholder
; trend analysis
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980-2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January-March) extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead-lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1-3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities. © 2013 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/74993
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: International Arctic Research Center, P.O. Box 757340, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States; Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, 3352 College Road, Fairbanks, AK 99709, United States; University of Alaska Geography Program, P.O. Box 757200, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States
Recommended Citation:
Rogers T,S,, Walsh J,et al. Future Arctic marine access: Analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice[J]. Cryosphere,2013-01-01,7(1)