DOI: 10.5194/tc-7-67-2013
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874057310
论文题名: An analysis of present and future seasonal Northern Hemisphere land snow cover simulated by CMIP5 coupled climate models
作者: Brutel-Vuilmet C ; , Ménégoz M ; , Krinner G
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2013
卷: 7, 期: 1 起始页码: 67
结束页码: 80
语种: 英语
英文关键词: air temperature
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; correlation
; global warming
; Northern Hemisphere
; simulation
; slope
; snow cover
英文摘要: The 20th century seasonal Northern Hemisphere (NH) land snow cover as simulated by available CMIP5 model output is compared to observations. On average, the models reproduce the observed snow cover extent very well, but the significant trend towards a reduced spring snow cover extent over the 1979-2005 period is underestimated (observed: (-3.4 ± 1.1)% per decade; simulated: (-1.0 ± 0.3)% per decade). We show that this is linked to the simulated Northern Hemisphere extratropical spring land warming trend over the same period, which is also underestimated, although the models, on average, correctly capture the observed global warming trend. There is a good linear correlation between the extent of hemispheric seasonal spring snow cover and boreal large-scale spring surface air temperature in the models, supported by available observations. This relationship also persists in the future and is independent of the particular anthropogenic climate forcing scenario. Similarly, the simulated linear relationship between the hemispheric seasonal spring snow cover extent and global mean annual mean surface air temperature is stable in time. However, the slope of this relationship is underestimated at present (observed: (-11.8 ± 2.7)% C-1; simulated: (-5.1 ± 3.0)% C-1) because the trend towards lower snow cover extent is underestimated, while the recent global warming trend is correctly represented. © 2013 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/74998
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: CNRS and UJF Grenoble 1, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE, UMR5183), 38041 Grenoble, France
Recommended Citation:
Brutel-Vuilmet C,, Ménégoz M,, Krinner G. An analysis of present and future seasonal Northern Hemisphere land snow cover simulated by CMIP5 coupled climate models[J]. Cryosphere,2013-01-01,7(1)