DOI: 10.5194/tc-10-2429-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84994030146
论文题名: Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
作者: Yang C ; -Y ; , Liu J ; , Hu Y ; , Horton R ; M ; , Chen L ; , Cheng X
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2016
卷: 10, 期: 5 起始页码: 2429
结束页码: 2452
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate modeling
; climate prediction
; CMIP
; decadal variation
; ensemble forecasting
; global climate
; hindcasting
; ice cover
; sea ice
; Arctic and Antarctic
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multi-model spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3-7 years), but there is a re-emerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6-8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic. © 2016 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75060
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China; Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Key Laboratory of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry, Third Institute of Oceanography, SOA, Xiamen, China; College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Yang C,-Y,, Liu J,et al. Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts[J]. Cryosphere,2016-01-01,10(5)