| DOI: | 10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84973341539
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| 论文题名: | Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier |
| 作者: | Faillettaz J; , Funk M; , Vagliasindi M
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| 刊名: | Cryosphere
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| ISSN: | 19940416
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 10, 期:3 | | 起始页码: | 1191
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| 结束页码: | 1200
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | displacement
; early warning system
; forecasting method
; glacier
; power law
; real time
; Alps
; Haute Savoie
; Italy
; Mont Blanc
; Savoy Alps
; Western Alps
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| 英文摘要: | A cold hanging glacier located on the south face of the Grandes Jorasses (Mont Blanc, Italy) broke off on the 23 and 29 September 2014 with a total estimated ice volume of 105 000m3. Thanks to accurate surface displacement measurements taken up to the final break-off, this event was successfully predicted 10 days in advance, enabling local authorities to take the necessary safety measures. The breakoff event also confirmed that surface displacements experienced a power law acceleration along with superimposed log-periodic oscillations prior to the final rupture. This paper describes the methods used to achieve a satisfactory time forecast in real time and demonstrates, using a retrospective analysis, their potential for the development of early-warning systems in real time. © 2016 Author(s). |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75133
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | UZH, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; VAW, ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland; Fondazione Montagna Sicura, Aosta Valley, Italy
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Faillettaz J,, Funk M,, Vagliasindi M. Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier[J]. Cryosphere,2016-01-01,10(3)
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