DOI: 10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84948954905
论文题名: Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations
作者: Melia N ; , Haines K ; , Hawkins E
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2015
卷: 9, 期: 6 起始页码: 2237
结束页码: 2251
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate modeling
; climate variation
; comparative study
; correction
; ensemble forecasting
; general circulation model
; global change
; ice thickness
; sea ice
; spatiotemporal analysis
; stakeholder
; uncertainty analysis
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979-2014) and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from the mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally. © 2015 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75218
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Earth Observation, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Melia N,, Haines K,, Hawkins E. Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations[J]. Cryosphere,2015-01-01,9(6)