globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939806890
论文题名:
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate
作者: Cornford S; L; , Martin D; F; , Payne A; J; , Ng E; G; , Le Brocq A; M; , Gladstone R; M; , Edwards T; L; , Shannon S; R; , Agosta C; , Van Den Broeke M; R; , Hellmer H; H; , Krinner G; , Ligtenberg S; R; M; , Timmermann R; , Vaughan D; G
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2015
卷: 9, 期:4
起始页码: 1579
结束页码: 1600
语种: 英语
英文关键词: atmospheric modeling ; emission ; geoaccumulation ; global warming ; ice sheet ; ice shelf ; ice stream ; melting ; meteor ; numerical model ; sea level change ; simulation ; Amundsen Sea ; Antarctica ; Southern Ocean ; Thwaites Glacier ; West Antarctica
英文摘要: We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. © Author(s) 2015.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75261
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; UJF-Grenoble 1/CNRS, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE) UMR5183, Grenoble, France; Département de Géographie, Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium; Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Alfred-Wegener-Institut für Polar und Meeresforschung, Bussestrasse 24, Bremerhaven, Germany; British Antarctic Survey, Madingley Road, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Cornford S,L,, Martin D,et al. Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate[J]. Cryosphere,2015-01-01,9(4)
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