DOI: 10.5194/tc-9-1039-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84930193641
论文题名: Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming
作者: Fürst J ; J ; , Goelzer H ; , Huybrechts P
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2015
卷: 9, 期: 3 起始页码: 1039
结束页码: 1062
语种: 英语
英文关键词: global warming
; ice sheet
; melting
; sea level change
; temperature gradient
; volume change
; Arctic
; Greenland
; Greenland Ice Sheet
英文摘要: Continuing global warming will have a strong impact on the Greenland ice sheet in the coming centuries. During the last decade (2000-2010), both increased melt-water runoff and enhanced ice discharge from calving glaciers have contributed 0.6 ± 0.1 mm yr-1 to global sea-level rise, with a relative contribution of 60 and 40% respectively. Here we use a higher-order ice flow model, spun up to present day, to simulate future ice volume changes driven by both atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. For these projections, the flow model accounts for runoff-induced basal lubrication and ocean warming-induced discharge increase at the marine margins. For a suite of 10 atmosphere and ocean general circulation models and four representative concentration pathway scenarios, the projected sea-level rise between 2000 and 2100 lies in the range of +1.4 to +16.6 cm. For two low emission scenarios, the projections are conducted up to 2300. Ice loss rates are found to abate for the most favourable scenario where the warming peaks in this century, allowing the ice sheet to maintain a geometry close to the present-day state. For the other moderate scenario, loss rates remain at a constant level over 300 years. In any scenario, volume loss is predominantly caused by increased surface melting as the contribution from enhanced ice discharge decreases over time and is self-limited by thinning and retreat of the marine margin, reducing the ice-ocean contact area. As confirmed by other studies, we find that the effect of enhanced basal lubrication on the volume evolution is negligible on centennial timescales. Our projections show that the observed rates of volume change over the last decades cannot simply be extrapolated over the 21st century on account of a different balance of processes causing ice loss over time. Our results also indicate that the largest source of uncertainty arises from the surface mass balance and the underlying climate change projections, not from ice dynamics. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75296
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Fürst J,J,, Goelzer H,et al. Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming[J]. Cryosphere,2015-01-01,9(3)