DOI: 10.5194/tc-9-945-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929087553
论文题名: Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: A study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5
作者: Lang C ; , Fettweis X ; , Erpicum M
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2015
卷: 9, 期: 3 起始页码: 945
结束页码: 956
语种: 英语
英文关键词: albedo
; climate feedback
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; cloud cover
; glaciation
; mass balance
; regional climate
; Arctic
; Svalbard
; Svalbard and Jan Mayen
英文摘要: We have performed a future projection of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model forced by MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to a cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a stronger winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. By 2085, SMB is projected to become negative over all of Svalbard's glaciated regions, leading to the rapid degradation of the firn layer. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75303
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Département de Géographie, Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Lang C,, Fettweis X,, Erpicum M. Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: A study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5[J]. Cryosphere,2015-01-01,9(3)