globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85045256182
论文题名:
Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods
作者: Harrison S; , Kargel J; S; , Huggel C; , Reynolds J; , Shugar D; H; , Betts R; A; , Emmer A; , Glasser N; , Haritashya U; K; , Klimeš J; , Reinhardt L; , Schaub Y; , Wiltshire A; , Regmi D; , Vilímek V
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2018
卷: 12, 期:4
起始页码: 1195
结束页码: 1209
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century. © Author(s) 2018.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75385
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom; Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, AZ, United States; Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Reynolds International Ltd, Broncoed House, Broncoed Business Park, Wrexham Road, Mold, Flintshire, United Kingdom; Water, Sediment, Hazards, and Earth-surface Dynamics Laboratory, University of Washington, Tacoma, WA, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Albertov 6, Prague, Czech Republic; Centre for Glaciology, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, United Kingdom; Department of Geology, University of Dayton, 300 College Park, Dayton, OH, United States; Department of Human Dimensions of Global Change, Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 986/4a, Brno, Czech Republic; Department of Engineering Geology, Institute of Rock Structure and Mechanics, Czech Academy of Sciences, V Holešovičkách 41, Prague 8, Czech Republic; Himalayan Research Center, Lainchaur, Kathmandu, Nepal

Recommended Citation:
Harrison S,, Kargel J,S,et al. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods[J]. Cryosphere,2018-01-01,12(4)
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