DOI: 10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85039764839
论文题名: How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?
作者: Rae J ; G ; L ; , Todd A ; D ; , Blockley E ; W ; , Ridley J ; K
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2017
卷: 11, 期: 6 起始页码: 3023
结束页码: 3034
语种: 英语
英文关键词: algorithm
; climate modeling
; correlation
; cyclone
; identification method
; sampling
; sea ice
; spatial resolution
; tracking
; Arctic
英文摘要: This paper presents an investigation of the robustness of correlations between characteristics of Arctic summer cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from 100-year coupled climate model simulations at two resolutions and for 30 years of reanalysis data, using two different tracking variables (mean sea-level pressure, MSLP; and 850 hPa vorticity) for identification of the cyclones. The influence of the tracking variable, the spatial resolution of the model, and spatial and temporal sampling on the correlations is then explored. We conclude that the correlations obtained depend on all of these factors and that care should be taken when interpreting the results of such analyses. Previous studies of this type have used around 30 years of reanalysis and observational data, analysed with a single tracking variable. Our results therefore cast some doubt on the conclusions drawn in those studies. © Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75453
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Rae J,G,L,et al. How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?[J]. Cryosphere,2017-01-01,11(6)