DOI: 10.5194/tc-11-517-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85013177872
论文题名: How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps
作者: Marty C ; , Schlögl S ; , Bavay M ; , Lehning M
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2017
卷: 11, 期: 1 起始页码: 517
结束页码: 529
语种: 英语
英文关键词: catchment
; climate change
; elevation
; emission
; future prospect
; ice thickness
; precipitation (climatology)
; snow cover
; temperature profile
; three-dimensional modeling
; time series analysis
; Alps
; Switzerland
英文摘要: This study focuses on an assessment of the future snow depth for two larger Alpine catchments. Automatic weather station data from two diverse regions in the Swiss Alps have been used as input for the Alpine3D surface process model to compute the snow cover at a 200 m horizontal resolution for the reference period (1999-2012). Future temperature and precipitation changes have been computed from 20 downscaled GCM-RCM chains for three different emission scenarios, including one intervention scenario (2 °C target) and for three future time periods (2020-2049, 2045-2074, 2070-2099). By applying simple daily change values to measured time series of temperature and precipitation, small-scale climate scenarios have been calculated for the median estimate and extreme changes. The projections reveal a decrease in snow depth for all elevations, time periods and emission scenarios. The non-intervention scenarios demonstrate a decrease of about 50 % even for elevations above 3000 m. The most affected elevation zone for climate change is located below 1200 m, where the simulations show almost no snow towards the end of the century. Depending on the emission scenario and elevation zone the winter season starts half a month to 1 month later and ends 1 to 3 months earlier in this last scenario period. The resulting snow cover changes may be roughly equivalent to an elevation shift of 500-800 or 700-1000 m for the two non-intervention emission scenarios. At the end of the century the number of snow days may be more than halved at an elevation of around 1500 m and only 0-2 snow days are predicted in the lowlands. The results for the intervention scenario reveal no differences for the first scenario period but clearly demonstrate a stabilization thereafter, comprising much lower snow cover reductions towards the end of the century (ca. 30 % instead of 70 %). © 2017 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75592
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland; École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lausanne, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Marty C,, Schlögl S,, Bavay M,et al. How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps[J]. Cryosphere,2017-01-01,11(1)