DOI: 10.1002/2017MS001214
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042173538
论文题名: A Stochastic Framework for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Convective Clouds
作者: Hagos S ; , Feng Z ; , Plant R ; S ; , Houze R ; A ; , Jr ; , Xiao H
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2018
卷: 10, 期: 2 起始页码: 448
结束页码: 465
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cell culture
; Cell proliferation
; Climate models
; Clouds
; Cytology
; Dynamics
; Heat convection
; Parameterization
; Population dynamics
; Population statistics
; Stochastic systems
; Closure formulation
; Discharge behaviors
; Key characteristics
; Mass-flux parameterizations
; Non equilibrium
; Nonlinear functions
; Stochastic
; Stochastic framework
; Stochastic models
英文摘要: A stochastic prognostic framework for modeling the population dynamics of convective clouds and representing them in climate models is proposed. The framework follows the nonequilibrium statistical mechanical approach to constructing a master equation for representing the evolution of the number of convective cells of a specific size and their associated cloud-base mass flux, given a large-scale forcing. In this framework, referred to as STOchastic framework for Modeling Population dynamics of convective clouds (STOMP), the evolution of convective cell size is predicted from three key characteristics of convective cells: (i) the probability of growth, (ii) the probability of decay, and (iii) the cloud-base mass flux. STOMP models are constructed and evaluated against CPOL radar observations at Darwin and convection permitting model (CPM) simulations. Multiple models are constructed under various assumptions regarding these three key parameters and the realisms of these models are evaluated. It is shown that in a model where convective plumes prefer to aggregate spatially and the cloud-base mass flux is a nonlinear function of convective cell area, the mass flux manifests a recharge-discharge behavior under steady forcing. Such a model also produces observed behavior of convective cell populations and CPM simulated cloud-base mass flux variability under diurnally varying forcing. In addition to its use in developing understanding of convection processes and the controls on convective cell size distributions, this modeling framework is also designed to serve as a nonequilibrium closure formulations for spectral mass flux parameterizations. © 2018. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75652
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hagos S,, Feng Z,, Plant R,et al. A Stochastic Framework for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Convective Clouds[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2018-01-01,10(2)