DOI: 10.1002/2017MS001186
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040722707
论文题名: An Environmentally Forced Tropical Cyclone Hazard Model
作者: Lee C ; -Y ; , Tippett M ; K ; , Sobel A ; H ; , Camargo S ; J
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2018
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Hazards
; Oceanography
; Risk assessment
; Shear flow
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Environmental conditions
; Frequency adjustment
; Hazard Assessment
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Statistical-dynamical
; Track density distribution
; Tropical cyclone
; Western North Pacific
; Hurricanes
英文摘要: A new statistical-dynamical model is developed for estimating the long-term hazard of rare, high impact tropical cyclones events globally. There are three components representing the complete storm lifetime: an environmental index-based genesis model, a beta-advection track model, and an autoregressive intensity model. All three components depend upon the local environmental conditions, including potential intensity, relative sea surface temperature, 850 and 250 hPa steering flow, deep-layer mean vertical shear, 850 hPa vorticity, and midlevel relative humidity. The hazard model, using 400 realizations of a 32 year period (approximately 3,000 storms per realization), captures many aspects of tropical cyclone statistics, such as genesis and track density distribution. Of particular note, it simulates the observed number of rapidly intensifying storms, a challenging issue in tropical cyclone modeling and prediction. Using the return period curve of landfall intensity as a measure of local tropical cyclone hazard, the model reasonably simulates the hazard in the western north Pacific (coastal regions of the Philippines, China, Taiwan, and Japan) and the Caribbean islands. In other regions, the observed return period curve can be captured after a local landfall frequency adjustment that forces the total number of landfalls to be the same as that observed while allowing the model to freely simulate the distribution of intensities at landfall. © 2018. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75680
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyColumbia UniversityPalisades, NY USA; Department of Applied Physics and Applied MathematicsColumbia UniversityNew York, NY USA; Department of MeteorologyKing Abdulaziz UniversityJeddah Saudi Arabia; Lamont-Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia UniversityPalisades, NY USA
Recommended Citation:
Lee C,-Y,, Tippett M,et al. An Environmentally Forced Tropical Cyclone Hazard Model[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2018-01-01