globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/2017MS001128
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85039073025
论文题名:
The Weighted-Average Lagged Ensemble
作者: DelSole T; , Trenary L; , Tippett M; K
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2017
卷: 9, 期:7
起始页码: 2739
结束页码: 2752
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Errors ; Forecasting ; Mean square error ; Statistical methods ; Highly-correlated ; lagged ensemble ; Leadtime ; Most likely ; Optimal weight ; Realistic applications ; Uncorrelated errors ; Weighted averages ; Weather forecasting ; analytical method ; climate modeling ; correlation ; ensemble forecasting ; error analysis ; weather forecasting
英文摘要: A lagged ensemble is an ensemble of forecasts from the same model initialized at different times but verifying at the same time. The skill of a lagged ensemble mean can be improved by assigning weights to different forecasts in such a way as to maximize skill. If the forecasts are bias corrected, then an unbiased weighted lagged ensemble requires the weights to sum to one. Such a scheme is called a weighted-average lagged ensemble. In the limit of uncorrelated errors, the optimal weights are positive and decay monotonically with lead time, so that the least skillful forecasts have the least weight. In more realistic applications, the optimal weights do not always behave this way. This paper presents a series of analytic examples designed to illuminate conditions under which the weights of an optimal weighted-average lagged ensemble become negative or depend nonmonotonically on lead time. It is shown that negative weights are most likely to occur when the errors grow rapidly and are highly correlated across lead time. The weights are most likely to behave nonmonotonically when the mean square error is approximately constant over the range forecasts included in the lagged ensemble. An extreme example of the latter behavior is presented in which the optimal weights vanish everywhere except at the shortest and longest lead times. © 2017. The Authors.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75706
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric, Ocean, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Center of Ocean-and-Atmospheric Studies, Fairfax, VA, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Recommended Citation:
DelSole T,, Trenary L,, Tippett M,et al. The Weighted-Average Lagged Ensemble[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2017-01-01,9(7)
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