DOI: 10.1002/2016MS000749
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85029448553
论文题名: Representing agriculture in Earth System Models: Approaches and priorities for development
作者: McDermid S ; S ; , Mearns L ; O ; , Ruane A ; C
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2017
卷: 9, 期: 5 起始页码: 2230
结束页码: 2265
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agriculture
; Biogeochemistry
; Carbon
; Crops
; Earth (planet)
; Economics
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Land use
; Uncertainty analysis
; Anthropogenic carbon
; Anthropogenic climate
; Biogeochemical cycling
; Critical researches
; Development trends
; Earth system model
; Land surface
; Surface interactions
; Climate models
; agricultural intensification
; agricultural land
; agricultural management
; agricultural modeling
; agriculture
; anthropogenic effect
; benchmarking
; biogeochemical cycle
; climate feedback
; climate forcing
; crop yield
; development strategy
; Earth
; emission
; environmental modeling
; greenhouse gas
; irrigation
; land surface
; land use change
; prioritization
; spatiotemporal analysis
; vegetation dynamics
英文摘要: Earth System Model (ESM) advances now enable improved representations of spatially and temporally varying anthropogenic climate forcings. One critical forcing is global agriculture, which is now extensive in land-use and intensive in management, owing to 20th century development trends. Agriculture and food systems now contribute nearly 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions and require copious inputs and resources, such as fertilizer, water, and land. Much uncertainty remains in quantifying important agriculture-climate interactions, including surface moisture and energy balances and biogeochemical cycling. Despite these externalities and uncertainties, agriculture is increasingly being leveraged to function as a net sink of anthropogenic carbon, and there is much emphasis on future sustainable intensification. Given its significance as a major environmental and climate forcing, there now exist a variety of approaches to represent agriculture in ESMs. These approaches are reviewed herein, and range from idealized representations of agricultural extent to the development of coupled climate-crop models that capture dynamic feedbacks. We highlight the robust agriculture-climate interactions and responses identified by these modeling efforts, as well as existing uncertainties and model limitations. To this end, coordinated and benchmarking assessments of land-use-climate feedbacks can be leveraged for further improvements in ESM's agricultural representations. We suggest key areas for continued model development, including incorporating irrigation and biogeochemical cycling in particular. Last, we pose several critical research questions to guide future work. Our review focuses on ESM representations of climate-surface interactions over managed agricultural lands, rather than on ESMs as an estimation tool for crop yields and productivity. © 2017. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75738
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Environmental Studies, New York University, New York, NY, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
McDermid S,S,, Mearns L,et al. Representing agriculture in Earth System Models: Approaches and priorities for development[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2017-01-01,9(5)