globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/2017MS000999
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85018557105
论文题名:
The primacy of doubt: Evolution of numerical weather prediction from determinism to probability
作者: Palmer T
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2017
卷: 9, 期:2
起始页码: 730
结束页码: 734
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Equations of motion ; Forecasting ; Green computing ; Probability ; Probability distributions ; Stochastic systems ; Uncertainty analysis ; Climate prediction ; Ensemble prediction ; High performance computing ; Initial conditions ; Model equations ; Numerical weather prediction ; Probability forecasting ; Weather prediction ; Weather forecasting
英文摘要: Over the last 25 years, the focus of operational numerical weather prediction has evolved from that of estimating the most likely evolution of weather to that of estimating probability distributions of future weather associated with inevitable uncertainties in both initial conditions and model equations. This evolution from determinism to uncertainty has not only increased the scientific rigor of weather prediction, it has also increased the value of weather forecasts for users. In addition, it has opened up a new approach to solving the equations of motion, likely to be of importance for both weather and climate prediction in an age where high-performance computing is limited by power consumption. However, despite all this, the numerical weather prediction community has yet to embrace fully the concept of the primacy of doubt. It is now time to take the final step in this direction. © 2017. The Authors.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75784
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Palmer T. The primacy of doubt: Evolution of numerical weather prediction from determinism to probability[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2017-01-01,9(2)
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