| DOI: | 10.1002/2016MS000787
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85018889918
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| 论文题名: | Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering |
| 作者: | Kadow C; , Illing S; , Kröner I; , Ulbrich U; , Cubasch U
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| 刊名: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
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| ISSN: | 19422466
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| 出版年: | 2017
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| 卷: | 9, 期:2 | | 起始页码: | 1138
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| 结束页码: | 1149
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climatology
; Dispersions
; Earth (planet)
; Earth atmosphere
; Forecasting
; Initial value problems
; Oceanography
; Weather forecasting
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Decadal predictions
; Dispersion filters
; Earth system model
; Ensemble techniques
; Initialization technique
; Long term climate projections
; Ocean
; Climate models
; atmosphere-ocean system
; boundary condition
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; cyclone
; decadal variation
; ensemble forecasting
; precipitation (climatology)
; temperature
; weather forecasting
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| 英文摘要: | Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean. © 2017. The Authors. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75793
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Kadow C,, Illing S,, Kröner I,et al. Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2017-01-01,9(2)
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