DOI: 10.1002/2016MS000729
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85010830916
论文题名: Dynamics and predictability of secondary eyewall formation in sheared tropical cyclones
作者: Zhang F ; , Tao D ; , Sun Y ; Q ; , Kepert J ; D
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2017
卷: 9, 期: 1 起始页码: 89
结束页码: 112
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Boundary layers
; Feedback
; Storms
; Tropics
; Eyewall
; Hurricane boundary layers
; Moat formation
; Replacement cycles
; Tropical cyclone
; Hurricanes
; atmospheric convection
; boundary layer
; cyclogenesis
; hurricane
; moisture content
; rainband
; subtropical convergence
; tropical cyclone
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: This study examines the predictability and dynamics of tropical cyclone (TC) secondary eyewall formation (SEF), eyewall replacement cycles (ERC), and intensity changes under moderate environmental shear through convection-permitting ensemble simulations. Even with the same environmental shear, the TC intensity changes during formation, rapid intensification, and SEF/ERC can be extremely sensitive to small, unobservable, random initial condition uncertainties, or computer's truncation error due to the chaotic nature of moist convection. Through composite analysis of five ensemble members with similar clear SEF/ERC and diagnostics with a nonlinear boundary layer (BL) model, we identify several key factors in the SEF/ERC process: (1) fast expansion of outer wind fields and changing inertial stability through shear-induced peripheral convection outside of the primary eyewall, (2) downward building and axisymmetrization of the primary (outer) rainband due to enhanced inertial stability and positive feedback between BL and outer convection, (3) establishment of the secondary eyewall along with moat formation that is facilitated by compensating subsidence from the primary eyewall, and (4) weakening and eventual replacement of the original primary eyewall by the strengthening secondary eyewall. It is also seen from the partial ERC cases that the preexisting rainband can be of great importance to the later development of SEF. Diagnosis with the nonlinear BL model shows that the location and relative strengths of the diagnosed frictional updrafts closely match those in the ensemble simulation of the ERC case, suggesting that the boundary layer convergence substantially influences the location of the convection in both eyewalls there. © 2016. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75809
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Australia Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Zhang F,, Tao D,, Sun Y,et al. Dynamics and predictability of secondary eyewall formation in sheared tropical cyclones[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2017-01-01,9(1)