DOI: 10.1002/2016MS000645
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85006977841
论文题名: Simulating county-level crop yields in the Conterminous United States using the Community Land Model: The effects of optimizing irrigation and fertilization
作者: Leng G ; , Zhang X ; , Huang M ; , Yang Q ; , Rafique R ; , Asrar G ; R ; , Ruby Leung L
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2016
卷: 8, 期: 4 起始页码: 1912
结束页码: 1931
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Crops
; Cultivation
; Denitrification
; Fertilizers
; Irrigation
; Mean square error
; Community land models
; Crop yield
; Crop yield simulations
; Fertilization
; Fertilizer applications
; Root mean square errors
; U.s. department of agricultures
; U.s. geological surveys
; Agriculture
; agricultural practice
; climate modeling
; crop improvement
; crop yield
; denitrification
; fertilizer application
; geological survey
; irrigation system
; model validation
; optimization
; soybean
; yield response
; United States
; Glycine max
; Zea mays
英文摘要: In this study, we applied version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM) at a 0.125° resolution to provide the first county-scale model validation for simulating crop yields over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Large bias was found in simulating crop yields against U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) survey data, with county-level root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 42% and 38% for simulated US mean corn and soybean yields, respectively. We then synthesized crop yield, irrigation and fertilization data sets from USDA and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to constrain model simulations. Compared with fertilization, irrigation has limited effects on crop yields with improvements limited to irrigated regions. In most current-generation Earth system models (ESMs), fertilizers are applied spatially uniformly with fixed amounts and timing without considering crop fertilizer demand. To address this weakness, we propose a prognostic fertilization scheme that dynamically determines the timing and rate of each fertilizer application, with the annual amounts and valid fertilization time windows constrained by surveyed data. The optimized fertilization scheme reduces RMSE to 22% and 21% of the US mean corn and soybean yields, respectively. Compared with the default CLM4.5, our fertilization scheme substantially improves crop yield simulations especially over major crop growing regions. However, to compensate for the widely documented biases in denitrification rates simulated by CLM4.5, the dynamically determined fertilization timing and rates do not match the fertilization practices of farmers exactly. Therefore, caution should be exercised when extending this method beyond the contemporary conditions. © 2016. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75862
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States; Earth System Analysis and Modeling Group, Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Leng G,, Zhang X,, Huang M,et al. Simulating county-level crop yields in the Conterminous United States using the Community Land Model: The effects of optimizing irrigation and fertilization[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2016-01-01,8(4)