DOI: 10.1002/2016MS000635
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84978141536
论文题名: The influence of model resolution on the simulated sensitivity of North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum intensity to sea surface temperature
作者: Strazzo S ; E ; , Elsner J ; B ; , LaRow T ; E ; , Murakami H ; , Wehner M ; , Zhao M
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2016
卷: 8, 期: 3 起始页码: 1037
结束页码: 1054
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Direct simulation
; Global climate model
; Intensity distribution
; Maximum intensities
; Meteorological phenomena
; Model resolution
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Tropical cyclone
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; global climate
; sea surface temperature
; sensitivity analysis
; tropical cyclone
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Global climate models (GCMs) are routinely relied upon to study the possible impacts of climate change on a wide range of meteorological phenomena, including tropical cyclones (TCs). Previous studies addressed whether GCMs are capable of reproducing observed TC frequency and intensity distributions. This research builds upon earlier studies by examining how well GCMs capture the physically relevant relationship between TC intensity and SST. Specifically, the influence of model resolution on the ability of a GCM to reproduce the sensitivity of simulated TC intensity to SST is examined for the MRI-AGCM (20 km), the GFDL-HiRAM (50 km), the FSU-COAPS (0.94°) model, and two versions of the CAM5 (1° and 0.25°). Results indicate that while a 1°C increase in SST corresponds to a 5.5–7.0 m s−1 increase in observed maximum intensity, the same 1°C increase in SST is not associated with a statistically significant increase in simulated TC maximum intensity for any of the models examined. However, it also is shown that the GCMs all capably reproduce the observed sensitivity of potential intensity to SST. The models generate the thermodynamic environment suitable for the development of strong TCs over the correct portions of the North Atlantic basin, but strong simulated TCs do not develop over these areas, even for models that permit Category 5 TCs. This result supports the notion that direct simulation of TC eyewall convection is necessary to accurately represent TC intensity and intensification processes in climate models, although additional explanations are also explored. © 2016. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75868
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, United States; Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, United States Military Academy, West Point, NY, United States; Verato, Inc., McLean, VA, United States; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Lawrence Berkely National Laboratory, Berkely, CA, United States; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Strazzo S,E,, Elsner J,et al. The influence of model resolution on the simulated sensitivity of North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum intensity to sea surface temperature[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2016-01-01,8(3)