DOI: 10.1002/2015MS000492
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84977962664
论文题名: Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets
作者: Yu M ; , Wang G ; , Chen H
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2016
卷: 8, 期: 1 起始页码: 370
结束页码: 386
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Budget control
; Climate change
; Heat flux
; Interfacial energy
; Snow
; Soil moisture
; Soils
; Surface measurement
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Uncertainty analysis
; Vegetation
; Climate change projections
; Dynamic vegetation model
; LSMs
; Meteorological forcing
; Southeastern South America
; Surface water and heat fluxes
; Uncertainty
; Water flux
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; energy flux
; evapotranspiration
; global climate
; heat flux
; land surface
; Northern Hemisphere
; precipitation (climatology)
; runoff
; soil moisture
; soil water
; surface energy
; surface water
; uncertainty analysis
; vegetation dynamics
; water budget
; water content
; Congo Basin
; North America
; South America
英文摘要: Assessing and quantifying the uncertainties in projected future changes of energy and water budgets over land surface are important steps toward improving our confidence in climate change projections. In this study, the contribution of land surface models to the inter-GCM variation of projected future changes in land surface energy and water fluxes are assessed based on output from 19 global climate models (GCMs) and offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) simulations driven by meteorological forcing from the 19 GCMs. Similar offline simulations using CLM4 with its dynamic vegetation submodel are also conducted to investigate how dynamic vegetation feedback, a process that is being added to more earth system models, may amplify or moderate the intermodel variations of projected future changes. Projected changes are quantified as the difference between the 2081-2100 period from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) future experiment and the 1981-2000 period from the historical simulation. Under RCP8.5, projected changes in surface water and heat fluxes show a high degree of model dependency across the globe. Although precipitation is very likely to increase in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a high degree of model-related uncertainty exists for evapotranspiration, soil water content, and surface runoff, suggesting discrepancy among land surface models (LSMs) in simulating the surface hydrological processes and snow-related processes. Large model-related uncertainties for the surface water budget also exist in the Tropics including southeastern South America and Central Africa. These uncertainties would be reduced in the hypothetical scenario of a single near-perfect land surface model being used across all GCMs, suggesting the potential to reduce uncertainties through the use of more consistent approaches toward land surface model development. Under such a scenario, the most significant reduction is likely to be seen in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Including representation of vegetation dynamics is expected to further amplify the model-related uncertainties in projected future changes in surface water and heat fluxes as well as soil moisture content. This is especially the case in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (e.g., northwestern North America and central North Asia) where the projected vegetation changes are uncertain and in the Tropics (e.g., the Amazon and Congo Basins) where dense vegetation exists. Findings from this study highlight the importance of improving land surface model parameterizations related to soil and snow processes, as well as the importance of improving the accuracy of dynamic vegetation models. © 2016. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75939
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation, Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Yu M,, Wang G,, Chen H. Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2016-01-01,8(1)