globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000407
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027921126
论文题名:
Uncertainty quantification for a climatology of the frequency and spatial distribution of North Atlantic tropical cyclone landfalls
作者: Tolwinski-Ward S; E
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2015
卷: 7, 期:1
起始页码: 305
结束页码: 319
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric pressure ; Climate models ; Climatology ; Hierarchical systems ; Hurricanes ; Maximum likelihood ; Piecewise linear techniques ; Random processes ; Risk management ; Storms ; Tropics ; Bayesian hierarchical model ; Geo-statistics ; Spatial modeling ; Tropical cyclone landfalls ; Uncertainty quantifications ; Uncertainty analysis ; adaptive management ; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ; beach erosion ; climate variation ; climatology ; coastal zone management ; data set ; frequency analysis ; geostatistics ; hurricane ; numerical model ; risk assessment ; Southern Oscillation ; spatial distribution ; tropical cyclone ; Atlantic Ocean ; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: A spatially resolved climatology for the annual frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls along the Atlantic coast of North America is developed, and its uncertainty deriving from multiple sources is quantified. Historical landfall counts in piecewise-linear segments approximating the coastline are modeled using Poisson regression with spatial random effects. Predictors include index representations of the mean hurricane-season phases of the Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the effect of the latter also modeled spatially. This spatial generalized linear model for landfall frequency is used in conjunction with a data level accounting explicitly for the time-dependent uncertainty in the recorded landfall positions. The model performs skillfully in cross-validation exercises. The inferred effects of the climatic predictors are also consistent with current scientific understanding of the mechanisms through which related large-scale climatic variability affects the development and motion of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Sampling variability in the data over the short length of the observational record and observational error in the historical data are found to contribute substantially to the overall climatological uncertainty. The contribution from uncertainty in the underlying model parameters is negligible compared to these other sources. The model presented here could be used for applications in insurance and risk management, and adaptations could also be used to investigate changes in TC landfall climatology under an uncertain and changing climate. © 2015. The Authors.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76037
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Research, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Tolwinski-Ward S,E. Uncertainty quantification for a climatology of the frequency and spatial distribution of North Atlantic tropical cyclone landfalls[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2015-01-01,7(1)
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