globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/2015MS000455
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027949348
论文题名:
Mitigating errors in surface temperature forecasts using approximate radiation updates
作者: Hogan R; J; , Bozzo A
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2015
卷: 7, 期:2
起始页码: 836
结束页码: 853
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Balloons ; Climate models ; Costs ; Errors ; Forecasting ; Heat radiation ; Solar radiation ; Surface measurement ; Surface properties ; Computational expense ; Computationally efficient ; NWP ; Skin temperatures ; Surface albedo ; Surface temperatures ; Temperature forecasts ; Weather and climate models ; Radiation ; air-sea interaction ; albedo ; climate modeling ; coastal zone ; computer simulation ; cost analysis ; diurnal variation ; error correction ; flux measurement ; forecasting method ; heating ; radiation budget ; surface flux ; surface temperature ; upwelling
英文摘要: Due to computational expense, the radiation schemes in many weather and climate models are called infrequently in time and/or on a reduced spatial grid. The former can lead to a lag in the diurnal cycle of surface temperature, while the latter can lead to large surface temperature errors at coastal land points due to surface fluxes computed over the ocean being used where the skin temperature and surface albedo are very different. This paper describes a computationally efficient solution to these problems, in which the surface longwave and shortwave fluxes are updated every time step and grid point according to the local skin temperature and albedo. In order that energy is conserved, it is necessary to compute the change to the net flux profile consistent with the changed surface fluxes. The longwave radiation scheme has been modified to compute also the rate of change of the profile of upwelling longwave flux with respect to the value at the surface. Then at each grid point and time step, the upwelling flux and heating-rate profiles are updated using the new value of skin temperature. The computational cost of performing approximate radiation updates in the ECMWF model is only 2% of the cost of the full radiation scheme, so increases the overall cost of the model by only of order 0.2%. Testing the new scheme by running daily 5 day forecasts over an 8 month period reveals significant improvement in 2 m temperature forecasts at coastal stations compared to observations. Key Points: Weather models can have large temperature errors at coastlines A new scheme is proposed to correct for this via approximate radiation updates The computational cost is only of order 0.2% of the cost of the entire model © 2015. The Authors.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76057
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Hogan R,J,, Bozzo A. Mitigating errors in surface temperature forecasts using approximate radiation updates[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2015-01-01,7(2)
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