globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000332
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027954393
论文题名:
Temporal, probabilistic mapping of ash clouds using wind field stochastic variability and uncertain eruption source parameters: Example of the 14 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption
作者: Stefanescu E; R; , Patra A; K; , Bursik M; I; , Madankan R; , Pouget S; , Jones M; , Singla P; , Singh T; , Pitman E; B; , Pavolonis M; , Morton D; , Webley P; , Dehn J
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2014
卷: 6, 期:4
起始页码: 1173
结束页码: 1184
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Forecasting ; Mapping ; Nonlinear analysis ; Stochastic systems ; Volcanoes ; Weather forecasting ; Ash clouds ; Ash plumes ; Numerical weather prediction ; Transport modeling ; Uncertainty quantifications ; Uncertainty analysis ; atmospheric plume ; mapping ; optimization ; probability ; stochasticity ; temporal analysis ; uncertainty analysis ; volcanic ash ; volcanic eruption ; weather forecasting ; wind field ; Eyjafjallajokull ; Iceland
英文摘要: Uncertainty in predictions from a model of volcanic ash transport in the atmosphere arises from uncertainty in both eruption source parameters and the model wind field. In a previous contribution, we analyzed the probability of ash cloud presence using weighted samples of volcanic ash transport and dispersal model runs and a reanalysis wind field to propagate uncertainty in eruption source parameters alone. In this contribution, the probabilistic modeling is extended by using ensemble forecast wind fields as well as uncertain source parameters. The impact on ash transport of variability in wind fields due to unresolved scales of motion as well as model physics uncertainty is also explored. We have therefore generated a weighted, probabilistic forecast of volcanic ash transport with only a priori information, exploring uncertainty in both the wind field and the volcanic source. Key Points: First time-varying probabilistic ash cloud forecast maps High-fidelity probability mapping with moment optimization and high-resolution winds Testing of outputs with standard metrics and against multimodel and SKEB © 2014. The Authors.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76081
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States; Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States; Center for Computational Research, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States; Department of Mathematics, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States; NOAA-NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Madison, WI, United States; Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, United States

Recommended Citation:
Stefanescu E,R,, Patra A,et al. Temporal, probabilistic mapping of ash clouds using wind field stochastic variability and uncertain eruption source parameters: Example of the 14 April 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2014-01-01,6(4)
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