globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000381
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027935983
论文题名:
Exploratory analysis of extremely low tropical cyclone activity during the late-season of 2010 and 1998 over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea
作者: Zhao H; , Chu P; -S; , Hsu P; -C; , Murakami H
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2014
卷: 6, 期:4
起始页码: 1141
结束页码: 1153
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Climate change ; Computer simulation ; Hurricanes ; Numerical models ; Storms ; Submarine geophysics ; Surface properties ; Surface waters ; Tropics ; Environmental conditions ; genesis potential index ; late-season ; Meteorological research institutes ; Northern indian oceans ; Sea surface temperature anomalies ; SST anomalies ; Tropical cyclone activity ; Oceanography ; environmental conditions ; La Nina ; sea surface temperature ; seasonal variation ; simulation ; tropical cyclone ; vorticity ; Pacific Ocean ; Pacific Ocean (North) ; South China Sea
英文摘要: This study attempts to understand why the tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea was so low in 2010 and 1998 even though a strong La Niña signal occurred in both years. We found that the TC frequency during the late-season (October to December), not in the peak season (July to September), makes 2010 a record low year; the next lowest year is 1998. Specifically, four TCs were observed over the South China Sea (SCS) in the late-season of 1998, but no TCs occurred over the SCS in the same season during 2010. The genesis potential index is used to help diagnose changes in environmental conditions for TC genesis frequency. Results indicate that the decreased low-level vorticity makes the largest contribution to the decreased TC formation over the SCS. The second largest contribution comes from the enhanced vertical wind shear, with relatively small contributions from the negative anomaly in potential intensity and reduction in midlevel relative humidity. These observational results are consistent with numerical simulations using a state of the art model from the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM 3.2 Model). Numerical experiments show that the unfavorable conditions for sharply decreased TC formation during the late-season over the SCS in 2010 mainly results from the sea surface temperature anomaly over the western North Pacific basin. This effect is partly offset by the sea surface temperature anomaly in the South Indian Ocean and Northern Indian Ocean basins. Key Points: Unusually low TC activity in 2010 and 1998 has received less attention To understand how the regional SST anomalies modulate circulations Better understanding of factors affecting tropical cyclone activity © 2014. The Authors.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76082
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

Recommended Citation:
Zhao H,, Chu P,-S,et al. Exploratory analysis of extremely low tropical cyclone activity during the late-season of 2010 and 1998 over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2014-01-01,6(4)
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