DOI: 10.1002/2013MS000297
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899124429
论文题名: Prediction and uncertainty of Hurricane Sandy (2012) explored through a real-time cloud-permitting ensemble analysis and forecast system assimilating airborne Doppler radar observations
作者: Munsell E ; B ; , Zhang F
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2014
卷: 6, 期: 1 起始页码: 38
结束页码: 58
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Doppler radar
; Uncertainty analysis
; Weather forecasting
; Airborne Doppler radar
; Ensemble prediction
; Forecast uncertainty
; Heavy precipitation
; Initial condition uncertainties
; Pennsylvania State University
; Precipitation forecast
; Tropical cyclone
; Hurricanes
; airborne sensing
; Doppler radar
; ensemble forecasting
; Hurricane Sandy 2012
; midlatitude environment
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; real time
; storm track
; tropical cyclone
; uncertainty analysis
; Mid-Atlantic States
; United States
英文摘要: Utilizing the Pennsylvania State University (PSU) real-time convection-permitting hurricane analysis and forecasting system (WRF-EnKF) that assimilates airborne Doppler radar observations, the sensitivity and uncertainty of forecasts initialized several days prior to landfall of Hurricane Sandy (2012) are assessed. The performance of the track and intensity forecasts of both the deterministic and ensemble forecasts by the PSU WRF-EnKF system show significant skill and are comparable to or better than forecasts produced by operational dynamical models, even at lead times of 4-5 days prior to landfall. Many of the ensemble members correctly capture the interaction of Sandy with an approaching midlatitude trough, which precedes Sandy's forecasted landfall in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. However, the ensemble reveals considerable forecast uncertainties in the prediction of Sandy. For example, in the ensemble forecast initialized at 0000 UTC 26 October 2012, 10 of the 60 members do not predict a United States landfall. Using ensemble composite and sensitivity analyses, the essential dynamics and initial condition uncertainties that lead to forecast divergence among the members in tracks and precipitation are examined. It is observed that uncertainties in the environmental steering flow are the most impactful factor on the divergence of Sandy's track forecasts, and its subsequent interaction with the approaching midlatitude trough. Though the midlatitude system does not strongly influence the final position of Sandy, differences in the timing and location of its interactions with Sandy lead to considerable differences in rainfall forecasts, especially with respect to heavy precipitation over land. Key Points Predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) track and precipitation forecasts Uncertainties in environmental steering flow lead to track divergence Interaction between midlatitude trough and Sandy impacts rainfall ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76093
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park PA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Munsell E,B,, Zhang F. Prediction and uncertainty of Hurricane Sandy (2012) explored through a real-time cloud-permitting ensemble analysis and forecast system assimilating airborne Doppler radar observations[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2014-01-01,6(1)