DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000314
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84904859354
论文题名: Effect of environmental shear, sea-surface temperature, and ambient moisture on the formation and predictability of tropical cyclones: An ensemble-mean perspective
作者: Tao D ; , Zhang F
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2014
卷: 6, 期: 2 起始页码: 384
结束页码: 404
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Computer simulation
; Hurricanes
; Moisture
; Moisture determination
; Oceanography
; Spatial distribution
; Submarine geophysics
; Uncertainty analysis
; Vortex flow
; Weather forecasting
; Dry-air intrusions
; Environmental conditions
; precession
; Rapid intensification
; Sea surface temperatures
; Tropical cyclone
; Vertical wind shear
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Shear flow
英文摘要: The formation and predictability of sheared tropical cyclones (TCs) are explored through a series of convection-permitting ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with different environmental vertical wind shear, sea-surface temperature (SST), and ambient moisture conditions. Small-amplitude random moisture perturbations are introduced in the lower troposphere as the initial-condition uncertainties to generate the ensembles under different environmental conditions; the composites of each ensemble are analyzed in this study to examine the mean dynamics of sheared TCs. It is found that the environmental shear can significantly affect the timing of tropical cyclone formation by influencing the spatial distribution of convection and subsequently changing the positive feedback between diabatic heating and the TC vortex primary circulation. Except for the initial spin-up periods, the larger the vertical wind shear, the farther and weaker the convection from the TC center, which leads to a weakening TC vortex circulation and more time is needed to start the onset of rapid intensification (RI). The simulated tropical cyclones cannot start rapid intensification during a 9 day simulation if the shear exceeds 7.5 m/s for a constant SST of 27°C. Increasing SST to 29°C reduces the tilt magnitude and thus shortens the RI onset time because of the increased diabatic heating closer to the TC center. Reduction in the environmental moisture content will eventually lead to weakened convection and delayed or failed precession in the latter stages if the TC forms at all. In summary, the development of tropical cyclones is largely depending on the magnitude of vertical wind shear and diabatic heating, which can be further altered by other environmental conditions, such as the sea-surface temperature and ambient moisture content. Key Points The larger the shear, the longer it takes the TCs to form and intensify Shear affects development of TCs through modulating convective intensity and spatial distribution Higher SST and moisture allow TCs to form faster and resist stronger shear © 2014. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76103
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park PA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Tao D,, Zhang F. Effect of environmental shear, sea-surface temperature, and ambient moisture on the formation and predictability of tropical cyclones: An ensemble-mean perspective[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2014-01-01,6(2)