DOI: 10.1002/wcc.457
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85012975511
论文题名: Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets
作者: James R ; , Washington R ; , Schleussner C ; -F ; , Rogelj J ; , Conway D
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2017
卷: 8, 期: 2 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate models
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Temperature
; Global temperature change
; Global temperatures
; Greenhouse-gas forcing
; Limited attentions
; Model experiments
; Non-linear response
; Regional climate changes
; Sources of uncertainty
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; regional climate
; temperature profile
英文摘要: The Paris Agreement long-term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub-selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2°C with 1.5°C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate between half degree warming increments while accounting for different sources of uncertainty; to examine mechanisms of regional climate change including the potential for nonlinear responses; and to explore the relevance of time-lagged processes in the climate system and declining emissions, and the resulting sensitivity to alternative mitigation pathways. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e457. doi: 10.1002/wcc.457. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. © 2017 The Authors. WIREs Climate Change published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76181
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Climate Research Lab, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford, United Kingdom; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland; Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change & the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
James R,, Washington R,, Schleussner C,et al. Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2017-01-01,8(2)