| DOI: | 10.1002/wcc.441
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85003451817
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| 论文题名: | Modelling interdecadal climate variability and the role of the ocean |
| 作者: | Farneti R
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| 刊名: | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
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| ISSN: | 17577780
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| 出版年: | 2017
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| 卷: | 8, 期:1 | | 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate change
; Climatology
; Anthropogenic contribution
; Climate variability
; Coupled climate model
; Decadal predictions
; Degree of confidence
; Internal variability
; Model communities
; Physical mechanism
; Climate models
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; parameterization
; sensitivity analysis
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| 英文摘要: | To estimate the anthropogenic contribution to climate signals in the recent past and future decades implies a certain degree of confidence in both understanding and simulating natural internal variability at interdecadal time scales. If we are to embark on the challenge of decadal prediction, we must be able to mechanistically attribute events to known processes and phenomena, and reproduce their features and statistics within our models. To date, models have succeeded in reproducing only partially spatial patterns, statistics and climatic impacts of interdecadal modes of variability. Reasons for the partial success and agreement among models are to be attributed to the short observational record, the different and complex flavours of coupling between the many subcomponents of the climate system, and the present inability to resolve all climate processes. At an even more fundamental level, this difficulty is aggravated by the limited understanding of the physical mechanisms involved. Here, we review the proposed mechanisms giving rise to interdecadal climate variability, we discuss the hypotheses explaining the main interdecadal modes of variability, and present an overview on the ability and level of agreement in their simulation by the latest generation of coupled climate models. To achieve any progress, the modeling community should focus on both improving the representation and parameterization of key ocean physical processes and obtaining a firmer grasp on the physical mechanisms generating the variability. Both goals can benefit from process studies, intercomparisons with perturbation experiments to study model's sensitivities, and the use of a hierarchy of climate models. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e441. doi: 10.1002/wcc.441. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76189
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Farneti R. Modelling interdecadal climate variability and the role of the ocean[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2017-01-01,8(1)
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