DOI: 10.1002/wcc.415
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84978372508
论文题名: The epistemic, ethical, and political dimensions of uncertainty in integrated assessment modeling
作者: Beck M ; , Krueger T
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2016
卷: 7, 期: 5 起始页码: 627
结束页码: 645
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate models
; Philosophical aspects
; Social sciences
; Uncertainty analysis
; Ethical implications
; Global climate changes
; Integrated assessment models
; Model development
; Model uncertainties
; Political dimensions
; Social relations
; Theoretical framework
; Climate change
; assessment method
; climate change
; climate modeling
; ethics
; global climate
; integrated approach
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Integrated assessment models (IAMs) of global climate change that combine representations of the economic and the climate system have become important tools to support policymakers in their responses to climate change. Yet, IAMs are built in the face of pervasive uncertainty, both scientific and ethical, which requires modelers to make numerous choices in model development. These modeling choices have epistemic, ethical, and political dimensions. First, modeling choices determine how well our current (lack of) knowledge about the elements and processes of the modeled system is represented. Second, modeling choices have ethical implications, for example, the choice of a social discount rate, which is well documented. For other modeling choices, the ethical assumptions and implications are more subtle. Third, climate-economic models are not produced and used in a political vacuum; they shape and are shaped by the social relations they are embedded in. We review findings from various literatures to unpack the complex intersection of science, ethics, and politics that IAMs are developed and used in. This leads us to suggest theoretical frameworks that may enable an integrated epistemic–ethical–political understanding of IAMs and increase transparency about all three dimensions of model uncertainties. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:627–645. doi: 10.1002/wcc.415. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. © 2016 The Authors. WIREs Climate Change published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76209
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Balsillie School of International Affairs, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada; IRI THESys, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Beck M,, Krueger T. The epistemic, ethical, and political dimensions of uncertainty in integrated assessment modeling[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2016-01-01,7(5)