| DOI: | 10.1002/wcc.373
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84958659096
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| 论文题名: | Tropical cyclones in climate models |
| 作者: | Camargo S; J; , Wing A; A
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| 刊名: | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
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| ISSN: | 17577780
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 7, 期:2 | | 起始页码: | 211
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| 结束页码: | 237
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate change
; Hurricanes
; Storms
; Climate change projections
; Downscaling methods
; Model sensitivity
; Multiple time scale
; Regional climate models
; Sources of uncertainty
; State of the art
; Statistical-dynamical
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; computer simulation
; ensemble forecasting
; regional climate
; tropical cyclone
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| 英文摘要: | In this review, we provide a historical overview of the simulation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in climate models, from the first attempts in the 1970s to the current state-of-the-art models. We discuss the status of TC simulation across multiple time scales, from intraseasonal, seasonal, and decadal, to climate change. One of the limitations on the simulation of TCs in climate models has been, and continues to be, balancing the high resolution necessary to accurately simulate TCs themselves with the need to run simulations for many years and using many ensemble members. Several approaches to inferring TC activity indirectly, rather than relying on the models own under-resolved TCs, are reviewed, including the use of TC genesis indices based on the large-scale environment and downscaling methods such as the use of regional climate models and statistical-dynamical techniques. We also provide an update on the status of climate change projections from the current class of models, where it is feasible to directly track the model's TCs. While there has been great progress in the capability of climate models to simulate TCs and provide useful forecasts and projections across multiple time scales, there remains much work to be done. We list some of the sources of uncertainty and model sensitivity, describe where improvements are necessary, and provide a few suggestions for promising research directions. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76243
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Camargo S,J,, Wing A,et al. Tropical cyclones in climate models[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2016-01-01,7(2)
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