DOI: 10.1002/wcc.253
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890405149
论文题名: Sea-level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts
作者: Nicholls R ; J ; , Hanson S ; E ; , Lowe J ; A ; , Warrick R ; A ; , Lu X ; , Long A ; J
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2014
卷: 5, 期: 1 起始页码: 129
结束页码: 150
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Decision making
; Digital storage
; Glacial geology
; Antarctic ice sheets
; Different mechanisms
; Global mean sea levels
; Impacts and adaptation
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Long-term decisions
; Relative sea level rise
; Sea-level rise scenarios
; Sea level
; climate change
; climate modeling
; coastal zone
; decision making
; ice sheet
; sea level change
; Arctic
; Greenland
; Greenland Ice Sheet
英文摘要: Global-mean sea-level rise will drive impacts and adaptation needs around the world's coasts over the 21st century and beyond. A key element in assessing these issues is the development of scenarios (or plausible futures) of local relative sea-level rise to support impact assessment and adaptation planning. This requires combining a number of different but uncertain components of sea level which can be linked to climatic and non-climatic (i.e., uplift/subsidence of coastal land) factors. A major concern remains about the possibility of significant contributions from the major Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and this must be factored into the assessments, despite the uncertainty. This paper reviews the different mechanisms which contribute to sea-level change and considers a methodology for combining the available data to create relative (or local) sea-level rise scenarios suitable for impact and adaptation assessments across a range of sophistication of analysis. The methods that are developed are pragmatic and consider the different needs of impact assessment, adaptation planning, and long-term decision making. This includes the requirements of strategic decision makers who rightly focus on low probability but high consequence changes and their consequences. Hence plausible high end sea-level rise scenarios beyond the conventional Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) range and which take into account evidence beyond that from the current generation of climate models are developed and their application discussed. Continued review and development of sea-level scenarios is recommended, starting with assimilating the insights of the forthcoming IPCC AR5 assessment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76352
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Faculty of Engineering and the Environment and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Reading Unit, Met Office Hadley Centre, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; International Institute of Agri-Food Security, Curtin University, Perth, Australia; Bureau for Development Policy, United Nations Development Programme, New York, NY, United States; Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Nicholls R,J,, Hanson S,et al. Sea-level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2014-01-01,5(1)