| DOI: | 10.1002/wcc.288
|
| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84903201725
|
| 论文题名: | Can we trust climate models? |
| 作者: | Hargreaves J; C; , Annan J; D
|
| 刊名: | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
|
| ISSN: | 17577780
|
| 出版年: | 2014
|
| 卷: | 5, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 435
|
| 结束页码: | 440
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | Carbon dioxide
; Forecasting
; Annual mean temperatures
; Decadal timescale
; High Latitudes
; Hydrological cycles
; Rate of increase
; Spatial scale
; Climate models
; air temperature
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; hydrological cycle
|
| 英文摘要: | What are the predictions of climate models, should we believe them, and are they falsifiable? Probably the most iconic and influential result arising from climate models is the prediction that, dependent on the rate of increase of CO2 emissions, global and annual mean temperature will rise by around 2-4°C over the 21st century. We argue that this result is indeed credible, as are the supplementary predictions that the land will on average warm by around 50% more than the oceans, high latitudes more than the tropics, and that the hydrological cycle will generally intensify. Beyond these and similar broad statements, however, we presently find little evidence of trustworthy predictions at fine spatial scale and annual to decadal timescale from climate models. © 2014 The Authors. WIREs Climate Change published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76357
|
| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Uncertainty Estimation Research Group, RIGC/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Hargreaves J,C,, Annan J,et al. Can we trust climate models?[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2014-01-01,5(4)
|
|
|