globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.202
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84871412745
论文题名:
Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: The value and demands of robust decision frameworks
作者: Weaver C; P; , Lempert R; J; , Brown C; , Hall J; A; , Revell D; , Sarewitz D
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2013
卷: 4, 期:1
起始页码: 39
结束页码: 60
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Decision making ; Decision support systems ; Climate information ; Critical thinking ; Decision framework ; Decision supports ; Deep uncertainties ; Model informations ; Numerical experiments ; System behaviors ; Climate models ; climate change ; climate modeling ; climate prediction ; decision making ; environmental policy ; literature review ; mitigation ; policy making
英文摘要: In this paper, we review the need for, use of, and demands on climate modeling to support so-called 'robust' decision frameworks, in the context of improving the contribution of climate information to effective decision making. Such frameworks seek to identify policy vulnerabilities under deep uncertainty about the future and propose strategies for minimizing regret in the event of broken assumptions. We argue that currently there is a severe underutilization of climate models as tools for supporting decision making, and that this is slowing progress in developing informed adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change. This underutilization stems from two root causes, about which there is a growing body of literature: one, a widespread, but limiting, conception that the usefulness of climate models in planning begins and ends with regional-scale predictions of multidecadal climate change; two, the general failure so far to incorporate learning from the decision and social sciences into climate-related decision support in key sectors. We further argue that addressing these root causes will require expanding the conception of climate models; not simply as prediction machines within 'predict-then-act' decision frameworks, but as scenario generators, sources of insight into complex system behavior, and aids to critical thinking within robust decision frameworks. Such a shift, however, would have implications for how users perceive and use information from climate models and, ultimately, the types of information they will demand from these models-and thus for the types of simulations and numerical experiments that will have the most value for informing decision making. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76365
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, United States; The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, United States; Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, Environmental Security Technology Certification Program, U.S. Department of Defense, Alexandria, VA, United States; Environmental Science Associates-Environmental Hydrology, San Francisco, CA, United States; Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States

Recommended Citation:
Weaver C,P,, Lempert R,et al. Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: The value and demands of robust decision frameworks[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2013-01-01,4(1)
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