globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.220
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84876191818
论文题名:
Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions
作者: Parker W; S
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2013
卷: 4, 期:3
起始页码: 213
结束页码: 223
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate models ; Decision making ; Uncertainty analysis ; Decision makers ; Ensemble members ; Ensemble modeling ; Expert assessment ; Future climate ; Robust predictions ; Sources of uncertainty ; Structural uncertainty ; Climate change ; climate change ; climate prediction ; ensemble forecasting ; modeling ; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Many studies of future climate change take an ensemble modeling approach in which simulations of future conditions are produced with multiple climate models (or model versions), rather than just one. These ensemble studies are of two main types-perturbed-physics and multimodel-which investigate different sources of uncertainty about future climate change. Increasingly, methods are being applied which assign probabilities to future changes in climate on the basis of the set of projections (the ensemble) produced in a perturbed-physics or multimodel study. This has prompted debate over both the appropriate interpretation of ensembles as well as how best to communicate uncertainty about future climate change to decision makers; such communication is a primary impetus for ensemble studies. The intuition persists that agreement among ensemble members about the extent of future climate change warrants increased confidence in the projected changes, but in practice the significance of this robustness is difficult to gauge. Priority topics for future research include how to design ensemble studies that take better account of structural uncertainty, how to weight ensemble members and how to improve the process by which ensemble studies are synthesized with other information in expert assessments.© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76368
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Philosophy, Ohio University, Athens, OH, United States

Recommended Citation:
Parker W,S. Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2013-01-01,4(3)
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