| DOI: | 10.1002/wcc.187
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84865175362
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| 论文题名: | Communicating probabilistic information from climate model ensembles-lessons from numerical weather prediction |
| 作者: | Stephens E; M; , Edwards T; L; , Demeritt D
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| 刊名: | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
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| ISSN: | 17577780
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| 出版年: | 2012
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| 卷: | 3, 期:5 | | 起始页码: | 409
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| 结束页码: | 426
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate change
; Decision making
; Forecasting
; Numerical methods
; Uncertainty analysis
; Weather forecasting
; Communication method
; Comparative analysis
; Numerical weather prediction
; Probabilistic climate projections
; Probabilistic information
; Research challenges
; Seasonal forecasting
; Technical improvement
; Climate models
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| 英文摘要: | Climate model ensembles are widely heralded for their potential to quantify uncertainties and generate probabilistic climate projections. However, such technical improvements to modeling science will do little to deliver on their ultimate promise of improving climate policymaking and adaptation unless the insights they generate can be effectively communicated to decision makers. While some of these communicative challenges are unique to climate ensembles, others are common to hydrometeorological modeling more generally, and to the tensions arising between the imperatives for saliency, robustness, and richness in risk communication. The paper reviews emerging approaches to visualizing and communicating climate ensembles and compares them to the more established and thoroughly evaluated communication methods used in the numerical weather prediction domains of day-to-day weather forecasting (in particular probabilities of precipitation), hurricane and flood warning, and seasonal forecasting. This comparative analysis informs recommendations on best practice for climate modelers, as well as prompting some further thoughts on key research challenges to improve the future communication of climate change uncertainties. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76406
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, Kings College London, London, United Kingdom
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Stephens E,M,, Edwards T,et al. Communicating probabilistic information from climate model ensembles-lessons from numerical weather prediction[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2012-01-01,3(5)
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