| DOI: | 10.1002/wcc.194
|
| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84867623618
|
| 论文题名: | Is climate change the number one threat to humanity? |
| 作者: | Goklany I; M
|
| 刊名: | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
|
| ISSN: | 17577780
|
| 出版年: | 2012
|
| 卷: | 3, 期:6 | | 起始页码: | 489
|
| 结束页码: | 508
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | Biodiversity
; Developing countries
; Environmental impact
; Floods
; Global warming
; Health
; Health risks
; Risk assessment
; Sea level
; Economic development
; Extreme weather events
; Global population
; Gross domestic products
; Industrialized countries
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Key determinants
; World Health Organization
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; economic development
; global warming
; Gross Domestic Product
; health impact
; health risk
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
|
| 英文摘要: | This paper challenges claims that global warming outranks other threats facing humanity through the foreseeable future (assumed to be 2085-2100). World Health Organization and British government-sponsored global impact studies indicate that, relative to other factors, global warming's impact on key determinants of human and environmental well-being should be small through 2085 even under the warmest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario. Specifically, over 20 other health risks currently contribute more to death and disease worldwide than global warming. Through 2085, only 13% of mortality from hunger, malaria, and extreme weather events (including coastal flooding from sea level rise) should be from warming. Moreover, warming should reduce future global population at risk of water stress, and pressures on ecosystems and biodiversity (by increasing net biome productivity and decreasing habitat conversion). That warming is not fundamental to human well-being is reinforced by lower bound estimates of net gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. This measure adjusts GDP downward to account for damages from warming due to market, health, and environmental impacts, and risk of catastrophe. For both developing and industrialized countries, net GDP per capita-albeit an imperfect surrogate for human well-being-should be (1) double the current US level by 2100 under the warmest scenario, and (2) lowest under the poorest IPCC scenario but highest under the warmest scenario through 2200. The warmest world, being wealthier, should also have greater capacity to address any problem, including warming. Therefore, other problems and, specifically, lowered economic development are greater threats to humanity than global warming. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76408
|
| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | 8726 Old Courthouse Road, Vienna, VA, United States
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Goklany I,M. Is climate change the number one threat to humanity?[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2012-01-01,3(6)
|
|
|