| DOI: | 10.1002/wcc.81
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-79951477455
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| 论文题名: | Drought under global warming: A review |
| 作者: | Dai A
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| 刊名: | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
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| ISSN: | 17577780
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| 出版年: | 2011
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| 卷: | 2, 期:1 | | 起始页码: | 45
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| 结束页码: | 65
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Drying
; Global warming
; Oceanography
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Atmospheric circulation patterns
; Atmospheric moisture
; Climate variation
; Eastern Australia
; Last millenniums
; Sea surface temperatures
; Southern oscillation
; Tropical atlantic
; Drought
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| 英文摘要: | This article reviews recent literature on drought of the last millennium, followed by an update on global aridity changes from 1950 to 2008. Projected future aridity is presented based on recent studies and our analysis of model simulations. Dry periods lasting for years to decades have occurred many times during the last millennium over, for example, North America, West Africa, and East Asia. These droughts were likely triggered by anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), with La Niña-like SST anomalies leading to drought in North America, and El-Niño-like SSTs causing drought in East China. Over Africa, the southward shift of the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic and warming in the Indian Ocean are responsible for the recent Sahel droughts. Local feedbacks may enhance and prolong drought. Global aridity has increased substantially since the 1970s due to recent drying over Africa, southern Europe, East and South Asia, and eastern Australia. Although El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical Atlantic SSTs, and Asian monsoons have played a large role in the recent drying, recent warming has increased atmospheric moisture demand and likely altered atmospheric circulation patterns, both contributing to the drying. Climate models project increased aridity in the 21st century over most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 20-50 years. Future efforts to predict drought will depend on models' ability to predict tropical SSTs. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76451
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Dai A. Drought under global warming: A review[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2011-01-01,2(1)
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